Jun 1, 2021Predicting markets using social media sentiment — is it possible?Oraclum has, in collaboration with The Macro Mail, started a prediction competition on Twitter where we look for traders and other enthusiastic market followers to give us their predictions on the weekly movements of asset prices. Specifically, we have asked about predicting six things: two indices (the Dow and the…Stocks5 min readStocks5 min read
Nov 4, 2020Post-election uncertainty: exactly as foretoldWhat comes next? As many of our regular readers and followers know this year we did not go public with our election predictions because we had a few high-paying clients that wanted the results before anyone else. …Elections3 min readElections3 min read
Oct 22, 2020Which swing states should we focus on in the 2020 election?Oraclum’s US election survey is up and running. If you’re from the US you can access it here and give a prediction on who wins in your state. Try it, it’s fun! If you want to know who is leading the race order one of our election prediction packages. Swing states — focus on three in particular Every…Elections3 min readElections3 min read
Oct 1, 2020Comparing the 2020 US election polls & predictionsUpdate: October 22nd 2020 — What the others are saying In the 2016 election the accuracy of our prediction was all the more impressive given the failure of every single benchmark we compared ourselves to. This election we will once again follow the same benchmarks and compare our predictions to theirs. We are looking at the most prominent and polling…Elections7 min readElections7 min read
Sep 8, 2020Who Wins in 2020?Back in 2016 we were a team of scientists that used a novel methodology to successfully predict Brexit and Trump, both within a single percentage point margin of error. …Elections7 min readElections7 min read
Jul 22, 2020The summer of lost hopesAt one moment there was hope that summertime will naturally suppress the spread of COVID-19. This hope is now gone as uncertainty sets in. — In the beginning of June, the COVID-19 trends in the US looked quite promising. The incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 people) was about 10 or less, with the pandemic hotspots in secure downward trends. The incidence doubling time was in almost every state over one month, mostly two…Covid-195 min readCovid-195 min read
Jun 10, 2020Riding on a highWhy is the stock market up while the economy is entering a recession? — The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official tracker of the US business cycle, declared this week that the recession in the country started in February 2020. According to NBER February was the peak of the business cycle as jobs already started disappearing (even though the huge COVID-driven…Stock Market8 min readStock Market8 min read
May 8, 2020Slowdown from lockdownCOVID-19’s path of death and analysis of Google mobility data — As the economic and social fallout from the “lockdown” measures takes its toll across the world the public debate has been increasingly focusing on the rationality of such drastic measures. This debate is both highly relevant and highly emotional. The problem is that everybody is prone to a personal bias…Covid-197 min readCovid-197 min read
Apr 9, 2020COVID-19 Data MyopiaPeople around the world are hooked on following daily updates of confirmed COVID-19 cases and their related deaths. Extracting various conclusions and projections is omnipresent these days. …Coronavirus15 min readCoronavirus15 min read
