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Oraclum has, in collaboration with The Macro Mail, started a prediction competition on Twitter where we look for traders and other enthusiastic market followers to give us their predictions on the weekly movements of asset prices. Specifically, we have asked about predicting six things: two indices (the Dow and the S&P500), two cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Dogecoin), the price of oil (WTI crude), and the yield of the 10-Year T-bill. In other words a healthy mixture of indicators useful in determining market movements and directions. …


What comes next?

As many of our regular readers and followers know this year we did not go public with our election predictions because we had a few high-paying clients that wanted the results before anyone else. This is why we opened our predictions to anyone who wanted to buy them for as low as $50 or $100 (many people did, which made us very happy that there is an actual market for this).

Those who bought our predictions knew this was coming. This is a quote from our election report available on November 3rd on our website:

If the results stay this…


Oraclum’s US election survey is up and running. If you’re from the US you can access it here and give a prediction on who wins in your state. Try it, it’s fun!

If you want to know who is leading the race order one of our election prediction packages.

Swing states — focus on three in particular

Every US election is decided by a handful of swing states. Typically states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania carry a significant importance because of the size of their electoral college votes. This election is no different.

In this election cycle we estimate the crucial states will be Florida (FL), Pennsylvania (PA)…


Update: October 22nd 2020

What the others are saying

In the 2016 election the accuracy of our prediction was all the more impressive given the failure of every single benchmark we compared ourselves to.

This election we will once again follow the same benchmarks and compare our predictions to theirs. We are looking at the most prominent and polling aggregators, models, prediction markets, and betting odds. We will update these on a weekly basis up until Election day (November 3rd).

If you’re interested in finding our why our methodology is superior to the regular polling models see here.

If you want to buy our 2020 predictions to stay ahead…


Back in 2016 we were a team of scientists that used a novel methodology to successfully predict Brexit and Trump, both within a single percentage point margin of error. It was a combination of our wisdom of crowds survey and a network analysis of friendship links on Facebook & Twitter (methodology described below).

Four years later, we are once again making our prediction, this time for the 2020 US election.

Results from 2016

We will start with our survey soon, focused primarily on the key US swing states (PA, FL, OH, NC, MI, WI — all states where Trump won in 2016 and…


At one moment there was hope that summertime will naturally suppress the spread of COVID-19. This hope is now gone as uncertainty sets in.

In the beginning of June, the COVID-19 trends in the US looked quite promising. The incidence rate (number of cases per 100,000 people) was about 10 or less, with the pandemic hotspots in secure downward trends. The incidence doubling time was in almost every state over one month, mostly two or more months, which was a slow trend that was the goal of “curve flattening”. The summer was coming just at the right time, when viral respiratory illnesses typically get subdued. The situation was perfect for setting up long term public health policies to combat COVID-19 when fall arrives and…


Why is the stock market up while the economy is entering a recession?

The US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official tracker of the US business cycle, declared this week that the recession in the country started in February 2020. According to NBER February was the peak of the business cycle as jobs already started disappearing (even though the huge COVID-driven unemployment claim spikes didn’t happen until mid-March). Since then over 42 million Americans found themselves out of work. The official unemployment rate shot up to 14.7% in April, and has declined back to 13.3% in June, as a more encouraging sign of a recovery driven by business re-openings.

Oraclum’s Fear Reaction Index is still at historically high levels in June 2020

Due to…


COVID-19’s path of death and analysis of Google mobility data

As the economic and social fallout from the “lockdown” measures takes its toll across the world the public debate has been increasingly focusing on the rationality of such drastic measures. This debate is both highly relevant and highly emotional. The problem is that everybody is prone to a personal bias on how we combine our risk perception and consequences of the restrictive public health measures. In the following blog we look at the data from different countries to quantify some aspects of this debate.

First, we look at the current trends in the number of deaths. In our previous blog…


Our COVID-19 daily visualization of cases worldwide.

People around the world are hooked on following daily updates of confirmed COVID-19 cases and their related deaths. Extracting various conclusions and projections is omnipresent these days. However, not enough attention is given to understanding what these numbers really mean and what we can learn from them, while at the same time avoiding over-interpretation.

Let’s briefly touch upon this issue. The number of confirmed cases is not an easy number to work with. Different countries apply different strategies on how many tests to take and whom to test (e.g. only people with symptoms or anyone who was in a contact…

Oraclum

Oraclum is a data company led by a team of scientists that builds prediction models. https://www.oraclum.co.uk

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