Who Wins in 2020?

Results from 2016

Our prediction in 2016: we called all the key swing states within a 1% margin!
(including PA, FL, NC, OH, VA, IA, and CO)

Implications for 2020

Can you trust the polls?

Non-response bias

A new polling methodology

  • We poll people on social media to find the best “observers” who tell us what their friends & other people think who will win.
  • Our users-observers then invite their friends to the survey, which enables us to see their preference pattern and measure their group bias (only if the friends solve the survey).
  • We then place a weight on each individual’s predictions based on their group’s bias and draw patterns of behaviour.

How can you benefit?



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Oraclum is a data company led by a team of scientists that builds prediction models. https://www.oraclum.co.uk